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Опционы для торговли на Forex

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DL
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DL
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Morning, let’s start.
Firs of all:
1. The theory I’m explaining is not mine originally and the best way especially for the Russian speaking is to study with Roman Ankudinov. I am doing that cause Roman’s site is Russian.
2. I am not a professional in all the kinds of the option trading and use one strategy only.
This strategy works well as an independent but for me just gives additional signals. Not often but as a result effectively enough.

DL
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The option is an independent financial instrument. Very interesting (I even may not understand how smart had to be the founder).
I am starting from the beginning but will not explain a lot of additional things known to me which don’t have a connection to the strategy. Another case we never will finish and I am not a teacher as well, so, I try to avoid potential mistakes.

DL
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There are CALL options and PUT.
At the very moment we may buy or sell higher or lower the current price any type of the option.
The difference with the traditional performance is that the options are available only by the fixed prices — strikes. And not available between the strikes.

For example: 1.0000, 1.0050, 1.0100.

DL
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More easy is to start from Call type.

DL
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A trader buys Call option higher the current price at the strike 1.0100.
What does it mean and how it works?

1. When he buys he pays (for example: to a Bank selling the option) some commission (Risk Premium) in points. It’s a fixed pay, so, the trader has a fixed MINUS at the beginning (he paid but got nothing in plus yet).

He may buy Call op. close or far from the current price. More far options are cheaper and cheaper.

DL
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For example: he paid 80 points. We put his RISK PREMIUM to the graphic (green line) 80 points higher than his strike. Later it’ll become more clear.

mdroid
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So the space between the lines is kind of like a spread ?

DL
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DL
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Similar meaning but we call it Risk Premium.

mdroid
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understood

DL
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DL
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2. When the price is anywhere lower the option strike it doesn’t affect the balance of the trader. Anywhere. Much lower or high but below our orange line. He has the minus he received when paid the Risk Premium.

DL
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3. When the price is at the green level The Option brings a profit equal to the Risk premium paid to the Bank. So, at this price our trader
has zero loosing. No profit, no loosing.

DL
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4. If the price goes higher the green level The Option starts to bring the profit. This profit has no limit and will grow up during the price does the same.

DL
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DL
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5. On the way from orange to green The Traders balance goes from minus (paid Risk Premium) to zero.

DL
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DL
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That’s it about the Buy Call.
Next — how to make money using The Option.

DL
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DL
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CORRECTED

2.png
DL
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How to use.

All of us understand that to make profit from this type of option is difficult. If to buy near the price it costs a lot, if to pay less as a risk Premium the option will be far from the price and perhaps the price will turn back soon.
The main thing we have to remember now is that the loosing of the trader may not become bigger than the Risk Premium he paid.

DL
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We remember that at the green level the balance becomes zero — no loosing.
The Trader uses the option to hedge his selling. It’s just a simple regular selling as we used to do every day.

DL
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He sells the same instrument (with The Option) with the same volume. When? When the price is at the green level (or higher). What he has as a result: 1. The price continues to grow up. His Option brings profit, his selling brings an equal loosing, so, anywhere higher the green line our trader has ZERO. 2. When the price goes lower than orange the selling brings profit but the option just brought a fixed loosing (Risk Premium) which doesn’t grow up. So, anywhere lower that orange the trader has plus. 3. A thin zone between the orange and the… Подробнее »

DL
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If I started to explain the difference between Call and Put, etc. now I will complicate the task. All the additional things will be explained at the end.

DL
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Now we have all necessary knowledge to discuss the strategy.

DL
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DL
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Now we know how to hedge the selling by an option. A lot of traders do that every day everywhere.
The experience shows that when the biggest traders do that it affects to the price moving.
The options explains why sometimes the price makes strange strong moves when no one theory forecasts that.

DL
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It’s our luck that CME has an obligation to show daily all the options.
We go here:
https://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/quikstrike/options-open-interest-profile.html
wait for a few seconds till the loading finishing and may see all.

DL
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What are we searching for? Big options. Low tab is Volume, UP one is a changing of the open interest.
The options appears next day around 6-8 am by Moscow. We have one additional problem — not often but CME may delay, up to one-two days.

I published the picture yesterday. Let’s discuss.

OICHART_000036-1.png
DL
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— The columns are active. So, you may see exact volumes;
— This chart has only strikes and doesn’t show Risk premiums (there is another way to see and count);
— The Futures price is not the same as Forex. There is a difference which is called Forward Point (will explain at the end). At the same time we may trade at least a few different options for each instrument and the very has different FP. For example: this week, next week, next Wednesday, July, September’2019, etc..

DL
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We see (VOLUME CHART) that there was a trading at the strike with total volume of 1,000 contracts. At the same time we see that the interest (UP chart) received additionally 1,000 contracts upper than the blue dot in the middle. So, we’re starting to think that a big trader bought an option for 1,000 contracts. We may use it. Probably the Trader will use the option to hedge. Now it’s difficult to understand what’s that ))) cause the Futures price doesn’t have any connection to Forex. Just don’t think now about that. Sometimes it’s exactly the same with Forex… Подробнее »

DL
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Roman makes daily based the level we have to know for six pears:
EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD and USDCHF, USDJPY, USDCAD.
If to subscribe you will have everything in the morning.
I check OIL, Metals and e-mini S&P500 as well.

DL
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Futures for first 3 pears looks similar with Forex, but three futures from the second group not. To understand is easy. You see at the picture 0.7700. It means 1/0.7700=1.2987 for Forex but without Forward Point yet (+/- 0…60 pips)
For JPY 0.00932 means 1/0.00932=107.30

DL
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ADDITION: DIRECTIONs of the second pears group charts are mixed up as well.

DL
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How to understand which volumes to take into account?

Roman distinguishes three types:
LowBoard of the market (НГР) and UpBoar of the market (ВГР), OL2 (ОУ2), OL3 (ОУ3)

DL
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1. MLB and MUpB — are the most simple to understand and the less effective levels.
The picture below shows current month GBP option chart with expiration in Aug’09 2019.
Maximum volume Call and Put are MUpB and MLB

OICHART_000012-1.png
DL
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1. We use the level in the case if don’t have OL2 and OL3.
2. I show the picture where the levels are from sides of the price. As a rule it’s like that, but sometimes not. They may be mixed up or may be located at the same side. In such case we have to find the «true» board (I’ve not been using within 2 years).

DL
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When we see big volumes came at one day we use them as well.
How big?
EUR, GBP, JPY — 1,000 contracts
AUD — 800
CAD — 600
CHF — 100+

If we see such VOLUME we call the level (taking into account FP and Risk premium) OL3.

In case if at the same time we see the same increasing of the interest we call the levels (taking into account FP and Risk premium) OL2.

OL2 — are the main levels for the strategy

DL
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So, the level I showed above in CAD is at the same time OL2 and OL3.

DL
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Difficult?

Is some here?

mdroid
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yea, kind of difficult but I will keep reading it repeatedly till I get it.

DL
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Now we know the levels we use and may start to learn how to use.

DL
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Who’s still alive?? )))

Yaroslav
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I`ve been being alive…=)

YaroslaV
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I have been being alive..! =)

mdroid
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me lol.

YaroslaV
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Hi, Dabson… =)

DL
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I have to add some additional level information.

If we have new big level at the day of a big important news theses are News Options:
3,000-5,000 contracts for EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD, AUD.
It works in my experience in 100% of cases. A few years before Roman told the same thing.
He opens the order a few min before the news by the market price.

For me it’s more easy to do, so, I open the orders following to my view to the waves at the moments I decide reliable.

DL
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The rules are:
The option has to be with the same instrument as the news.
The option strike has not to be more far than 150 points from the price (x.xxxx format)

DL
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The Final options — big options before the expiration. I will explain another day.

YaroslaV
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Thank you very much..! =)

DL
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DL
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Put is the same but turned around. If we say to Buy Call, we say to sell Put. In Russian we say put from the verb muddle (Пут от Путать).
For our strategy it doesn’t make sense. Call upper, Put lower the price with Forex.

DL
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This is a picture made using the script by Roman Ankudinov.
The Forward Point is different every day, so, Roman takes into account.
He counts Risk premiums as well.
It’s really a time consuming job, so, I prefer to pay.
Never the less since Roman makes just 6 pears I do all the reset I need by myself.

DL
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Now as CME picture shows CAD price stays at the strike of OL2 option, but a real level for us is the risk premium level and we see it lower than the Market low board (thick orange) as 1.28898 (today). If the level is last (as now) we take it into account and may be waiting for the price turning.

DL
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Correction: 1.2930 instead of 1.28898

DL
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DL
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Corrected

USDCADH1-15.png
DL
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I hope for today it’s enough. I need a break )))
Any questions are welcome.

DL
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DL
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July 16th, Second day.

DL
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Yesterday I explained how to Use Buy Call and Sell Put info. For the Strategy it’s not enough.

DL
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1. I told at the beginning that the very option may be bought and sold as well.
Why I may Sell a Call option and how it works?
If I have a lot of money and at the moment don’t know how to use it I may sell Call (buy Put) far from the market price.

DL
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When I’m selling the Call option The Buyer pays to me (instead of a Bank) the Risk premium. I receive fixed amount of money. And that’s it in case if the price before the expiration moment will not come higher than the option strike. Higher than the risk premium I am starting to lose money. (In the thin area between two levels … as I told yesterday and not important to us). So, how to make money? To sell as far from the market as possible to be sure that during the contract period the price will not appear there.… Подробнее »

1.png
DL
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As a result we have to learn just two things:
a) if we see an incredibly big option far from the market that’s not to hedge and it doesn’t influence to the strategy we discuss. See the sample in GBP I made today;
b) if the price made that big move and at the moment of the expiration our option was in MINUS, after the expiration it become a minus Futures. How we use I am planning to explain as » The Final options» later.

OICHART_000040 Sell Call GBP.png
DL
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July 17th
External and Internal levels.

DL
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Look to the picture. It has vertical red lines separated months contracts. I marked the current month with beige color. The RED narrow shows the maximum price within THE CURRENT MONTHS CONTRACT. «External levels» are the level higher the narrow (lower the minimum price as well). We take into account only that levels for a searching of the price turn possibility. All the levels between the narrow and the current price (low side the same) are «Internal Levels». We don’t pay attention to them. Sometimes they work, sometimes not, some times they even move the price faster to up side… Подробнее »

DL
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The picture

USDCHFH1-2.png
DL
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It’s the current CHF.

DL
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Note: I am going to clarify the efficiency of different signals at the end by the showing of my personal statistics for the different strategy signals.

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